{"id":4541,"date":"2022-05-25T17:44:20","date_gmt":"2022-05-26T00:44:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/powersourcerer.com\/?p=4541"},"modified":"2022-05-26T16:14:37","modified_gmt":"2022-05-26T23:14:37","slug":"disaster-intuition-and-the-crap-shoot-of-life","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/powersourcerer.com\/2022\/05\/25\/disaster-intuition-and-the-crap-shoot-of-life\/","title":{"rendered":"Disaster, Intuition and the Crap-shoot of Life"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>[et_pb_section fb_built=&#8221;1&#8243; admin_label=&#8221;section&#8221; _builder_version=&#8221;4.17.4&#8243; global_colors_info=&#8221;{}&#8221; theme_builder_area=&#8221;post_content&#8221;][et_pb_row admin_label=&#8221;row&#8221; _builder_version=&#8221;4.16&#8243; background_size=&#8221;initial&#8221; background_position=&#8221;top_left&#8221; background_repeat=&#8221;repeat&#8221; global_colors_info=&#8221;{}&#8221; theme_builder_area=&#8221;post_content&#8221;][et_pb_column type=&#8221;4_4&#8243; _builder_version=&#8221;4.16&#8243; custom_padding=&#8221;|||&#8221; global_colors_info=&#8221;{}&#8221; custom_padding__hover=&#8221;|||&#8221; theme_builder_area=&#8221;post_content&#8221;][et_pb_text admin_label=&#8221;Text&#8221; _builder_version=&#8221;4.17.4&#8243; _module_preset=&#8221;default&#8221; global_colors_info=&#8221;{}&#8221; theme_builder_area=&#8221;post_content&#8221;]<\/p>\n<p><em>From my essay written in Sept 2005<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>You may prefer the audio version&#8230;<\/em><\/p>\n<!--[if lt IE 9]><script>document.createElement('audio');<\/script><![endif]-->\n\t<div class=\"wp-playlist wp-audio-playlist wp-playlist-light\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"wp-playlist-current-item\"><\/div>\n\t\t<audio controls=\"controls\" preload=\"none\" width=\"1058\"\n\t\t\t><\/audio>\n\t<div class=\"wp-playlist-next\"><\/div>\n\t<div class=\"wp-playlist-prev\"><\/div>\n\t<noscript>\n\t<ol>\n\t\t<li><a href='https:\/\/powersourcerer.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/01-Disaster-Intuition-and-the-Crap-shoot-of-Life-May-25-2022.m4a'>Disaster, Intuition and the Crap-shoot of Life - May 25, 2022<\/a><\/li>\t<\/ol>\n\t<\/noscript>\n\t<script type=\"application\/json\" class=\"wp-playlist-script\">{\"type\":\"audio\",\"tracklist\":true,\"tracknumbers\":true,\"images\":true,\"artists\":true,\"tracks\":[{\"src\":\"https:\\\/\\\/powersourcerer.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2022\\\/05\\\/01-Disaster-Intuition-and-the-Crap-shoot-of-Life-May-25-2022.m4a\",\"type\":\"audio\\\/mpeg\",\"title\":\"Disaster, Intuition and the Crap-shoot of Life - May 25, 2022\",\"caption\":\"Audio version of Disaster, Intuition and the Crap-shoot of Life - May 25, 2022\",\"description\":\"\\\"01 Disaster, Intuition and the Crap-shoot of Life - May 25, 2022\\\".\",\"meta\":{\"artist\":\"Lucca Hallex - Power Sourcerer\",\"album\":\"She Who Knows Blog\\\/Pod - 5.2 2022\",\"length_formatted\":\"14:16\"},\"image\":{\"src\":\"https:\\\/\\\/powersourcerer.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2022\\\/05\\\/01-Disaster-Intuition-and-the-Crap-shoot-of-Life-May-25-2022-m4a-image.png\",\"width\":501,\"height\":531},\"thumb\":{\"src\":\"https:\\\/\\\/powersourcerer.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2022\\\/05\\\/01-Disaster-Intuition-and-the-Crap-shoot-of-Life-May-25-2022-m4a-image-150x150.png\",\"width\":150,\"height\":150}}]}<\/script>\n<\/div>\n\t\n<p>It strikes me that we don\u2019t all-of-a-sudden find ourselves living in a state of denial about anything. We don\u2019t wake one morning with a penchant for not seeing what\u2019s in front of us. For example the people of the Mississippi delta didn\u2019t move to an uninhabited flood plane and think that they could live there without risk. River deltas do flood; the settlers from Europe would have known that and so would the indigenous people\u2019s of the area. Hurricanes though; they might be a slightly different story.<\/p>\n<p>The people settling in the Mississippi delta might not have known about the frequency or fury of hurricanes. I watched a topical TV documentary, after Hurricane Katrina hit New Orleans. It explained how the idea of the levees came about after a flood devastated the then settlement. The settlers rebuilt their homes and businesses, while at the same time extending and reinforcing the levees. As the town was hit over and over, they came to experience a pattern of devastation and recovery. I can\u2019t help but think that somewhere along the line, the settlers must have considered the fact that they could expect the unexpected of hurricanes and floods, accompanied by varying degrees of destruction. At some point in the evolution towards the community\u2019s modern sophistication and permanence, they likely came to believe that they had so much invested that it was worth the risk to protect it.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>Living with Risk<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>I wonder how often civilisation has found itself, and continues to find itself, in the situation of having incrementally made a decision, or series of decisions, to stay with a risky choice, by not really acknowledging whether it is truly reasonable. Of course, reason is not the only factor in such choices. There are the opportunities of potentially great trade profits, the benefits of how things are when hurricanes and floods are not in evidence, and the comfort and convenience of habit.<\/p>\n<p>Once a city is well enough established to become a major hub, somewhere like San Francisco on a fault line or New Orleans at sea level, must not the residents make an assumption that it must be safe enough because all those millions of people are living there. It must be alright because it has been \u2013 so far? At what point do such choices not look like choices, not look like risk-taking, any longer. At what point does it make sense? Does it ever?<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>Do We Consciously Assess Risk?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Do we think to ourselves, \u201cWell, I don\u2019t know anyone who has died here so it can\u2019t be that bad.\u201d Or, \u201cI won\u2019t be here very long \u2013 I\u2019ll be gone before the big one hits.\u201d Or, \u201cIt won\u2019t happen to me \u2013 what are the odds?\u201d Or, \u201cMy family have always lived here and we\u2019re survivors.\u201d Or, \u201cLife is full of risks; I could as easily be hit by a bus while crossing the street.\u201d What sorts of justifications do we make?<\/p>\n<p>How do we rationalise knowing the facts about the risks of natural disasters, or \u2018Acts of God\u2019, with continuing to live as if they couldn\u2019t happen at any time, which of course they can, as their occurrence is not governed by mere mortals. I suppose that one way in which we might continue in this denial would be to do things which we believe would mitigate the risks, such as building or strengthening levees or instituting emergency measures with back-up systems.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>Being Prepared<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>In the business world and the military world, this line of thinking is called a cost-benefit analysis. We cringe to some extent when we think of it in terms of human life, nevertheless, it\u2019s what we\u2019re doing. The greater the risk and the less frequently we experience such disasters, the more we grapple with how much money we should invest in preparedness, insurance and money set aside for disaster relief. We consider how much time we might have for all of this, before it will be needed.<\/p>\n<p>In business school, students are taught that if the potential threat could completely wipe out your enterprise, you should at least invest enough time and money to create a solid contingency plan. For \u2018enterprise\u2019, read \u2018city\u2019 and for potential \u2018threat\u2019, read hurricane\/flood\/pandemic\/climate\/ energy crisis. I think I can safely state that nothing is as simple as the scenarios we outline in our preparedness plan. In a unidimensional society, we could prepare a contingency plan without having to worry that the funding that goes into one plan, wouldn\u2019t have to come out of the coffers of another, equally important plan. The real world is full of difficult choices. When there are so many justifiable demands on the same limited funds, how do we, as a responsible society, choose?<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>Is Life a Crap-shoot?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>We can posit that life itself is about taking risks and that, if we don\u2019t, we\u2019re really not living. There\u2019s always a risk of terrorism, of weather-related events, or seismic activity, of human fallibility and of disease, to mention but a few. All are serious, largely unpredictable and potentially catastrophic. Which risks are the riskiest of the lot? How can we predict? Without the benefit of hindsight, is it just a crap-shoot?<\/p>\n<p>On the occasions when we win the crap-shoot, does \u2018winning\u2019 encourage us to continue taking risks, as unprepared as we are? And how do we react when we \u2018lose\u2019? Do we become more risk-averse? Do we start bargaining by promising that we will prepare better for the \u2018next one\u2019? Do we start looking for where to place blame? If there were, in our assessment, nothing but risks ahead, with very few benefits, we might not choose to take such risks as living in a flood plane or tornado corridor or next door to a volatile dictator or engage in potentially risky behaviour, but that\u2019s rarely the case. We\u2019re dealing with constant trade-offs on ever-shifting ground.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>When Is a Risk a Calculated Risk?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>At one time in my career, I worked for an insurance company whose very trade was risk. Assessing risk was how they determined what premiums to charge. Although they were in the business of risk, when the time came to pay out, it seemed to me that they didn\u2019t want to pay for the inevitable disasters. Paying out would cut into their profit, of which, when there were fewer disasters, there was a great deal. That\u2019s the premise of insurance; a group shares in the amassing of funds so that there is enough money to cover one or more of the insured, when disaster strikes. We call it \u2018spreading the risk\u2019. However, in life, don\u2019t we get used to the benefits while the crap-shoot is in our favour, while increasing believing that the disaster is unlikely? The longer we go without losing, or without obviously visible signs of losing, the more we lull ourselves into believing that there is less risk.<\/p>\n<p>This train of thought leads me to shift my focus from the world of cities and large-scale societal disasters to the more immediate but no less impactful realm of personal relationships. You might agree that relationships are also risky. It seems to me that the more we love, the more vulnerable we allow ourselves to become and the more we rely on one another, the greater the risk of getting hurt, both emotionally and financially. We all know the statistics about the numbers of separations and divorces, accidents, illnesses and deaths. We even know most of the reasons; they\u2019ve become clich\u00e9s. Most of us have seen relationships close to us disintegrate, if not our own, and yet, we still fail to do the relationship preparation, maintenance and healing that we are told can reduce the risks.<\/p>\n<p>There are always reasons, especially in hindsight. \u201cThe kids were small and needed our attention. We didn\u2019t have the time. Our careers were all-consuming. We were just waiting for life to slow down a little. We thought it was a bad year. We thought it would get better. I couldn\u2019t get him\/her to see that there was a problem. It\u2019s just life \u2013 I can\u2019t expect things to be perfect. Everybody has bumps in their relationships.\u201d I suggest that our primary relationships carry huge expectations, from both sides and from society. The cost of relationship dysfunction, especially with a family, are enormous and complicated. You would think that with the costs and benefits being so high, investing time and energy in awareness, skill-building and contingency planning would be the order of the day. And yet they don\u2019t seem to be.<\/p>\n<p>I could as easily talk about our health as about relationships; whether physical, emotional, mental or spiritual. Our denial about the state of all of these in our lives is akin to that of the citizenry of New Orleans or insurance companies or the couple whose marriage is inching towards dysfunction and eventual breakdown. I\u2019m not talking about the choices that are glaring and relatively simple \u2013 we\u2019re typically better with the roaring tigers that are emergencies. It\u2019s the complex choices that present enough difficulty that we put them off, often burying them at the back of the closet. I suspect that this is especially so when we meet with resistance; those choices where: our resources are stretched precariously thin or; our options are unclear or unpleasant or; where we\u2019re unsure of our position in the situation. For my part, I know I fall into asking myself whether I\u2019m being logical, reasonable and rational. I ask whether I know enough, whether I should compromise, whether I\u2019m in the right.<br \/>When we get right down to the crux of these choices, how many can even be measured rationally? Indeed, are there just so many unknowns that we are dealing with a crap-shoot? Where the odds are unknown, or unknown to us, how do we go about assessing the risks? How much control do we believe that we have; in our relationships, our communities or in our countries? Feeling or believing that there is not enough time, knowledge or resources, even if it only seems this way, leads us to inertia \u2013 to denial and inaction.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>What If We Were to Use Our Intuition?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>If life is indeed a crap-shoot, maybe we\u2019re better off using our intuition to make the final choices. I\u2019m referring to \u2018healthy intuition\u2019, not the hopeful little voice that suggests that it might go away if you leave the risk in the back of the closet. What if using our intuition isn\u2019t such a lunatic way to make choices or aid in making them? I wonder how many New Orleans citizens heard a little voice inside them that told them they needed to leave the city, before or just before Hurricane Katrina hit? How many people stand beside their partner-to-be, knowing, or at least strongly suspecting, that they are or might be marrying the wrong person, and do it anyway? Or once into the relationship, how many people have a nagging inner voice that says there is something that isn\u2019t right and needs attention, sooner rather than later? I <em>know<\/em> that we ignore our inner voice at our own peril. Our collective intuition is calling to us.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>Time for Change<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Jumping to the bigger picture once again, for many years I have had a deep and frustrating sense that our system of government is just not working for us any longer. Doubtless, it is better than those in many other places on the planet, but I don\u2019t believe ours is up to the task any longer. I dream of a system that is empowering to all the members of the citizenry it purports to represent. I want it to be designed to foster community, inclusion, collaboration and trust. I am often embarrassed and ashamed as I listen to our elected representatives and our business leaders; both at home and abroad. I can no longer convince myself that they must be intelligent and worldly, or they would\u2019t have risen to the positions they have. Just when I think it can\u2019t get worse, it does.<\/p>\n<p>Although I consider myself a born optimist, when it comes time to vote, at any level of government, I feel I have a choice between bad and worse. It\u2019s not that I think that the individuals are necessarily crooked or incompetent, rather that, if anyone has to work in a system that is based on the concept of \u2018he with the most toys wins\u2019, that forces short-term win-lose thinking, it will not bring out the best of that person\u2019s abilities in their quest to be in service of others and of the whole. This sort of system will, perforce, attract those who can and are willing to work within it. I don\u2019t believe it is sustainable for our collective future.<\/p>\n<p>I\u2019m very aware that criticising doesn\u2019t make the system better. I admit to devolving into hopelessness on occasion, feeling that I don\u2019t have useful suggestions for improvement. I recognise that governance isn\u2019t my area of expertise. But how can my own system of representation and governance be beyond my expertise? I fervently hope that there are members of my community who find this challenge worthy of their passionate problem-solving capabilities and, when they surface, I will do my best to support them. In the meantime, I am contributing from my area of expertise and passion, to support the personal and professional empowerment of the people who are changing our world for the better.<\/p>\n<p>The question I pose today is this: What is our personal and societal risk, if we ignore that which we know isn\u2019t conducive to the collective life on this planet?<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">* * *<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>I invite you to check out more <em>She Who Knows Blog\/Pod<\/em> posts: www.powersourcerer.com<\/p>\n<p>Follow me on Social Media:<\/p>\n<p>FB\u00a0<span style=\"color: #666699;\"><a style=\"color: #666699;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/lucca.hallex\">Lucca Hallex Power Sourcerer<\/a><\/span><br \/>IG <span style=\"color: #666699;\"><a style=\"color: #666699;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/powersourcerer\/\">powersourcerer<\/a><\/span><br \/>LinkedIn <span style=\"color: #666699;\"><a style=\"color: #666699;\" href=\"http:\/\/linkedin.com\/in\/luccahallexdotcom\">Lucca Hallex<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/powersourcerer.com\/luccas-story\/\">Find my Bio here<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em>photo credit:<span>\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/unsplash.com\/@jannerboy62?utm_source=unsplash&amp;utm_medium=referral&amp;utm_content=creditCopyText\">Nick Fewings<\/a><span> on <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/unsplash.com\/s\/photos\/dice%2C-nick-fewings?utm_source=unsplash&amp;utm_medium=referral&amp;utm_content=creditCopyText\">Unsplash<\/a><span><\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<p>[\/et_pb_text][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][\/et_pb_section]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Living with Risk \u2013 I wonder how often civilisation has found itself, and continues to find itself, in the situation of having incrementally made a decision, or series of decisions, to stay with a risky choice, by not really acknowledging whether it is truly reasonable. How consciously do we assess risk?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":4550,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"on","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","_price":"","_stock":"","_tribe_ticket_header":"","_tribe_default_ticket_provider":"","_tribe_ticket_capacity":"0","_ticket_start_date":"","_ticket_end_date":"","_tribe_ticket_show_description":"","_tribe_ticket_show_not_going":false,"_tribe_ticket_use_global_stock":"","_tribe_ticket_global_stock_level":"","_global_stock_mode":"","_global_stock_cap":"","_tribe_rsvp_for_event":"","_tribe_ticket_going_count":"","_tribe_ticket_not_going_count":"","_tribe_tickets_list":"[]","_tribe_ticket_has_attendee_info_fields":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[25,52],"tags":[53,32,51],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/powersourcerer.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4541"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/powersourcerer.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/powersourcerer.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/powersourcerer.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/powersourcerer.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4541"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/powersourcerer.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4541\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4577,"href":"https:\/\/powersourcerer.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4541\/revisions\/4577"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/powersourcerer.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4550"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/powersourcerer.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4541"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/powersourcerer.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4541"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/powersourcerer.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4541"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}